[Dragaera] Vlad's passivity--getting long

[Philip Hart]

Getting longer.  At some point soon we'll have to give up
and continue the conversation at SKZBcon.


On Mon, 20 Oct 2008, Jerry Friedman wrote:

>> How is Vlad going to get into the area without Loraan
>> knowing it?
>
> [...]
> On the other hand, I don't think it's ever clear how Loraan knew it was 
> time to kill Reins.

Right, that's what I had in mind.

Ok, if V convinces a bevy of GW-wielders to take out L,
it doesn't matter whether he saunters up to the door.
But then they hardly need Vlad to blast their way
into the keep of an Athyra wizard - or, well.

At some point this is going to turn into a diplomatic
embarrassment.


>>>  In particular, Ishtvan and his knife probably
>> won't be around.
>>
>> Sure, he'll be pursuing Vlad as he walks away from the
>> area.
>
> Ishtvan has shown no ability to find Vlad.

It might help to have a warm trail.

> Anyway, Vlad teleports a couple of times in the book.

In moments of great danger, mostly iirc.  But how is that, 
anyway?  It's dangerous, but not instantaneously deadly?
That's the sense I have from _Jhereg_, but that's more
pro-warm trail evidence.


>>>  Also, Vlad can have time to plan in relative safety and time
>>> to amass whatever he needs.

>> He needs a GW and a bazooka.  That or lots of luck and a
>> destiny, which he already has.
>
> He knows people with GWs.  Whatever Vlad is planning,
> they would improve his chances.

This is always the case.  It's not how Vlad lives his life.


> And what could his plan possibly be?  If Blackwand
> failed, how can he hope to succeed?

First off, who says Blackwand failed?

Second, I figure he means to drown L in a butt of dark water.


>  He has no reason to expect that a Morganti dagger will work-- and is he 
> hoping all along to use Ishtvan's?

I would guess that chopping off the head, burning to ashes,
feeding to one's familiar would work.  V obviously knows about 
fighting undead from the dark water stuff.


>> Who knows?  Maybe he set a desultory trap but once Vlad walks away 
>> he'll pull out all the stops.  Permanent teleport blocks, for example.
>
> I see no reason to think he can do that.  Ishtvan is
> impressed enough that Loraan can put a block up over
> three square miles (Chapter 15).

What does Ishtvan know about what L can do?


>>> Most important, Vlad can get help.
>>
>> How?
>
> To be serious, he can get a message to Kiera the same
> way he did in /Orca/, and he knows Kiera can get in
> touch with Morrolan.

That's likely to take a while.  And, well, I imagine that
by now there's a Jhereg operative in the Castle Black
mailroom.  Maybe Vlad would tell Kiera to break in again
and leave a note on M's pillow - but there's probably
a Jhereg operative in the CB cleaning staff.

> He also communicates psychically
> with Savn, so he could communicate with others.

Is this consistent?  I assumed he couldn't safely do this,
esp. after L has called in the Jhereg.


>>> I imagine Aliera would be interested in getting
>> revenge on Loraan.
>>
>> Why would she care?  Loraan didn't know it was her
>> soul, presumably.
>
> I don't think it's presumable--we have no idea what he
> did or didn't find out with over 200 years to
> study the staff.  And Sethra or Morrolan could easily
> have told him, though that's pure speculation.
> Certainly he figured out that it was someone important
> to them.

Ok, Aliera can't know if he knows.  And if she cared,
she would have found L a long time ago, as I argued.

Come to think of it, in _Taltos_ S and M could just tell
L that he's holding the soul of the Dragon heir and if he
doesn't hand it over the Empire will end him.


> Anyway, Aliera has often demonstrated that she'll fight
> over nothing.  I feel sure she would fight someone who
> used her soul as experimental equipment and refused to
> stop when he was offered compensation for it.

She might be of the he's-already-been-killed-over-this
persuasion too.

> wouldn't it be frustrating to kill somebody and see him
> reappear?  If you're a Dragonlord.

Where does Vlad say there's nothing deadlier than touching
another's GW?  _Issola_?  My operating assumption is that
M didn't morgantize L on purpose because it was a single-
combat break-in.


>
>> them.  Vlad has I think left pretty solid clues that Savn's family 
>> has interacted with him - if he goes now, they get eaten or worse.
>
> The interaction has just been with Savn when Vlad first
> says "Leaving?  No, it's probably too late for that."
> (Chapter 3.)

Hasn't Vlad already done the bit with the stone already?


> Although he has told Savn that Loraan is
> undead, and Loraan might kill Savn if he finds out he
> knows that (to speculate without evidence).  But until
> later in the book, Vlad hasn't shown a whole lot of
> concern with innocent bystanders.

How is that?  Is it consistent with _Jhegaala_?


> Why does Vlad say it's too late?  That's what I don't
> understand.

Well, it's consistent with my argument.


[stuff about mail snipped]


> mail Morrolan gets.

Does he get much personal mail of the type he reads,
given psy?


> Which would be too trivial to mention, except that it leads into 
> something I've wondered about.  Morrolan and Aliera must be as famous 
> as Kobe Bryant and Madonna.  Why doesn't their celebrity ever rate a 
> mention?

They don't spend any time around anyone who cares, or who would
be vulgar enough to discuss the issue?


> but still, I'd expect something.  Vlad meets Ric
> in /Dzur/: "Greetings, my lord Count!  I hear
> you've saved the Empire twice since I saw you
> last!"

Vlad should be famous among Easterners - those who don't
think saving the Empire at the time of _Phoenix_, which
is all Ric should know about, was a bad idea.

>
> Pointless speculation material: How secure is the
> Imperial Post?  Should Vlad worry that the Jhereg
> are watching Morrolan's mail?

Oops - I had taken this as given.


>> If Sethra cares, why doesn't she know?  (Ditto Aliera
>> et al.) [...]
>
> That's a very interesting question [...]

Maybe the answer is that they all figure L knows he'll be
chopped into small undead slivers then killed if he messes
with V.


>
>> Anyway, my point was that walking away means quite likely giving up on 
>> attacking Loraan, because Vlad has no future.  The Jhereg are going to 
>> kill him, or a bandit will, or some root he trips over, or some other 
>> mess he wanders into.  He's already running from one formidable foe - 
>> the evil of the day is sufficient.
>
> To me that's a reason not to take on a foe you can walk
> or teleport away from.

You're not Vlad any more than I am, though.  Vlad's a guy who spends
years tramping around miserably in the wilderness because he won't
risk or accept getting trivial help from his friends the highly-
skilled doctor, the best wizard in the empire, and on and on.