[Dragaera] not really a spoiler, i don't think...

[Jon%20Lincicum]

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Eugene Zaretskiy" <eugene.zar at gmail.com> 
To: "steve rapaport" <steve.rapaport at gmail.com> 
Cc: "Dragaera Mailing List" <dragaera at dragaera.info> 
Sent: Tuesday, January 19, 2010 8:34:06 AM GMT -08:00 US/Canada Pacific 
Subject: Re: [Dragaera] not really a spoiler, i don't think... 

>On Tue, Jan 19, 2010 at 11:19 AM, Steve Rapaport 
><steve.rapaport at gmail.com> wrote: 
>> There are equally simple mundane explanations for the outgoing houses being 
>> more powerful. 
>> 
>> 1. Institutional inertia. The "Phoenix Guards" will remain mostly Phoenix 
>> in a Dragon reign (present case excepted). Whatever advantages the Phoenix 
>> courtiers and civil servants and institutions secured for themselves in the 
>> Phoenix reign will not vanish overnight. 
>> 
>> 2. Political inertia. Part of a politician's job is to set up leverage for 
>> himself for future deals, and not all of that leverage will depend on the 
>> current state of the cycle or who is Emperor at the moment. 
>> 
>> 3. Public thinking. Even if the public is fickle, and willing to forget all 
>> about Phoenixes and start respecting Dragons, the automatic respect they 
>> taught their kids for Phoenixes won't go away overnight either. 
> 
>I thought about these elements, but all three of fall into the 
>"unsatisfactory" bucket in my opinion, unless these two points can be 
>addressed: 
> 
>1. While the power of incoming houses has been visibly demonstrated in 
>the books, to my knowledge, none of the three points you bring up 
>about outgoing houses have been. 
> 
>2. Less importantly, and text aside (since, as per #1, we don't have 
>any evidence of this), none of those three, or even all three 
>combined, seem to me to be as practically efficient as being heir to 
>the Empire. #1 and #2 seem to be perks of the job for those few who 
>happen to be at the top of the house hierarchy while the house is in 
>power and have the foresight and inclination to take advantage of 
>these things. By contrast, the power of an incoming house is implicit 
>and does not need to be acted upon, and affects all the individuals of 
>a house because one can never be certain what position the Dragonlord 
>one is offending will hold when the Cycle turns. #3 doesn't have these 
>issues but I don't believe it's a factor that would have any serious 
>implications. The slight change in attitude does not explain the power 
>referred to when discussing top-tier houses. 

To mean, the influence of the Cycle in this is a passive one. All of the mundane elements that shape the end result of the power of each House in succession exist because the Cycle itself makes it impossible for any competing mundane elements to last for long. Events follow in accordance with the Cycle not because it is exerting an active influence on events; but rather, the Cycle shapes the world, and events just naturally follow a path the coincides with what the Cycle dictates. 

Equate it to a physical law, such as gravity. A planet orbits around the sun because the gravity the sun generates bends the space around the planet. The planet is just being carried along by its momentum... But since the universe is bent around it, it follows the natural curve of space, and ends up in orbit around the sun. It would take an enormous amount of effort and energy to affect the orbit of the planet even slightly, and even then, the planet would just settle into a new orbit (a little closer or a little farther from the sun) as soon as the external influence was taken away. 

Such it is with the cycle. The mundane elements do not create the Cycle, and the Cycle is not being defined by the mundane events. The political ramifications of a House's position on the Cycle are simply a natural consequence of the shape of reality at that time. When low on the Cycle, an extraordinary mundane effort can sometimes temporarily overcome the effect of the Cycle to a small degree, but the effect is marginal, and quickly negated afterward by the vagaries of fate. 

Majikjon