[Dragaera] Iorich ***SPOILERS****

[Jon%20Lincicum]

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Philip Hart" <philiph at slac.stanford.edu> 
To: "SKZB List" <dragaera at dragaera.info> 
Sent: Monday, January 11, 2010 3:40:15 PM GMT -08:00 US/Canada Pacific 
Subject: Re: [Dragaera] Iorich ***SPOILERS**** 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>>> 
>>> 
>>> 
>>> On Mon, 11 Jan 2010, Alexx Kay wrote: 
>>> 
>>>>>>>> 0 
>>>>>>>> 1 
>>>>>>>> 2 
>>>>>>>> 3 
>>>>>>>> 4 
>>>>>>>> 5 
>>>>>>>> 6 
>>>>>>>> 7 
>>>>>>>> 8 
>>>>>>>> 9 
>>>>>>>> 10 
>>>>>>>> 11 
>>>>>>>> 12 
>>>>>>>> 13 
>>>>>>>> 14 
>>>>>>>> 15 
>>>>>>>> 16 
>>>>>>>> 17 
> 
> [snip] 
> 
> 
> It's only been 8 years. To a Dragaeran, that's hardly any time at all. You could sneeze and miss it. 
> 
>But on the time-scale of the opportunity, it's long. Five more eight 
>year periods and Vlad's out of their reach for good. He's likely enough 
>to be killed by the Jenoine or by the Left Hand in the meantime that the 
>value of their lesson is serious eroded. He's getting older but he's also 
>getting stronger and gaining powerful allies and creating debts, while the 
>house is garning enmity and losing their top assassins. 

This may be part of the reason why Vlad has had so little trouble avoiding overt assassination attempts in /Iorich/ and /Dzur/. 

>And on the Mellar time-scale - a few days causes the real damage - isn't 
>it too late? 

Well, the idea of the Mellar situation was they needed (or at least preferred) that he be dead before the crime was even discovered. The Demon may well have overstated the importance of this deadline to Vlad in order to avoid the naturally undesirable consequences of starting another Dragon-Jhereg war. 

Since Vlad's crimes were public almost immediately, the same sort of time pressures do not seem to apply. Some damage has already been done to the House's reputation due to his survival thus far, but they can still mitigate some of the damage by killing him now. 

>> What makes you think they haven't continued making example of the "next 
>> guys" in the iterim? 
> 
>The unlikelihood that anyone would be dumb enough to go up against the 
>organization based on the example of a witchcraft-and-GW wielding 
>invisible-to-sorcery intimate friend of the most powerful people in the 
>world and chosen tool of the gods. 

This hasn't stopped Kragar (and his troops) from helping Vlad. One might say that this is the beginning of a rebellion within the Jhereg. 

>> Besides, I'm pretty sure the current Council members are taking this 
>> pretty personally. Vlad has pissed off pretty much every one of them 
>> individually at this point. 
> 
>This just argues for Vlad taking them out. You think Mario is happy about 
>the Jhereg putting Aliera in jail? 

Problem is, Vlad's not really in a position to replace them with his own hand-picked replacements if he kills the particular current leaders on the Council. Even if he could get all five (four?) of them at something close to the same time, they likely each have lieutennants with each of their organizations that would just take their places if this happened. 

Now, if he could engineer a deal with the top lieutennants of The Demon, Nylanth, Poletra, and Terion to leave him alone in return for killing their bosses and giving them control of the Council, this might work. It does seem rather unlikely that this particular scheme would be very feasible, however. Vlad may be wealthy by Dragaeran standards, but it would take a *lot* of gold to engineer a pay-off on that scale. And even if you could pay enough to get all those lieutennants to turn on their bosses at the same time, how could you ever trust them to keep their word afterward? 


>>> If Vlad dies a natural death, they're really screwed. 
>> 
>> On that much we can agree. 
> 
>That has to be part of their calculation then. It's not like they're 
>making any progress - just the opposite. 

Which explains why they're willing to set up Aliera and risk pissing off the House of Dragon in the process just for the chance to nail him. They're getting more desparate. 


>Why would anyone put that much effort into becoming powerful in order 
>to spend the rest of their lives on the run? It would be much easier 
>and lucrative to wipe out the council and install one's friends. Any 
>sufficient motive is going to lead to the bad actions in question 
>regardless of response. 

See above. 

>> The Jhereg have spent 250,000 years building a reputation as the House 
>> you don't dare cross. They can't afford to just let Vlad go. Or at 
>> least, the leaders of the House believe this is the case, which amounts 
>> to the same thing. 
> 
>They're risking doing that right now and burning resources - by coming to 
>an understanding they can remove the risk and be better prepared in case 
>anyone is dumb enough to try to follow Vlad. 
> 
>And they didn't actually win the last war, did they? They just showed 
>they'd fight incredibly hard, which is all that's needed to be a 
>deterrent. 

I'm not really going to disagree that this might in all actuality be sufficient, but I'm not the one you'd need to convince. Tell that to the Jhereg Council. 

>> The alternative is that they'd have to spend far more money and 
>> resources instilling a new sense of terror in order to maintain their 
>> control than they are spending chasing after Vlad. 
> 
>I don't see anyone in the Jhereg amassing the skills and strengths to 
>put up 1/17th of the struggle Vlad has. 

Not individually. But if "every two-bit operator" starts trying, they won't have the resources to stop them all. 


>They're also risking a scenario in which Vlad takes out the council and 
>puts Mario and Kragar in their place. That doesn't hurt the Empire 
>really, and probably takes care of Vlad's problem during his lifespan. 
>If Vlad comes to think that's necessary for VN to have a good life, he 
>might just go for it. The council ought to cut its losses before they 
>lose everything. 

Well, we don't know much about Mario's actual position within the Organization (if any). Does he control territory? And is Kragar's territory and organization large enough to hold a spot on the Council, even if one were handed to him on a silver platter? 

In order to install one's friends at the top of the council, one must cultivate powerful friends within the Organization. Again, difficult when most of them want you dead. 

Majikjon