[Dragaera] Iorich ***SPOILERS****

[Philip Hart]

On Tue, 12 Jan 2010, Jon%20Lincicum wrote:

>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Philip Hart" <philiph at slac.stanford.edu>
> To: "SKZB List" <dragaera at dragaera.info>
> Sent: Monday, January 11, 2010 3:40:15 PM GMT -08:00 US/Canada Pacific
> Subject: Re: [Dragaera] Iorich ***SPOILERS****
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>>>> On Mon, 11 Jan 2010, Alexx Kay wrote:
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>> [snip]
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>>
>> It's only been 8 years. To a Dragaeran, that's hardly any time at all. You could sneeze and miss it.
>>
>> But on the time-scale of the opportunity, it's long. Five more eight
>> year periods and Vlad's out of their reach for good. He's likely enough
>> to be killed by the Jenoine or by the Left Hand in the meantime that the
>> value of their lesson is serious eroded. He's getting older but he's also
>> getting stronger and gaining powerful allies and creating debts, while the
>> house is garning enmity and losing their top assassins.
>
> This may be part of the reason why Vlad has had so little trouble 
> avoiding overt assassination attempts in /Iorich/ and /Dzur/.

I don't follow which side you're arguing on here.  If the organization is 
falling behind maybe they should cut their losses, no?


>> And on the Mellar time-scale - a few days causes the real damage - isn't
>> it too late?
>
> Well, the idea of the Mellar situation was they needed (or at least 
> preferred) that he be dead before the crime was even discovered. The 
> Demon may well have overstated the importance of this deadline to Vlad 
> in order to avoid the naturally undesirable consequences of starting 
> another Dragon-Jhereg war.

Hmm, if it wasn't so important to get him immediately they could have 
asked Mario, who would have (presumably) left no trace.

> Since Vlad's crimes were public almost immediately, the same sort of 
> time pressures do not seem to apply. Some damage has already been done 
> to the House's reputation due to his survival thus far, but they can 
> still mitigate some of the damage by killing him now.

>
>>> What makes you think they haven't continued making example of the "next
>>> guys" in the iterim?
>>
>> The unlikelihood that anyone would be dumb enough to go up against the
>> organization based on the example of a witchcraft-and-GW wielding
>> invisible-to-sorcery intimate friend of the most powerful people in the
>> world and chosen tool of the gods.
>
> This hasn't stopped Kragar (and his troops) from helping Vlad. One might 
> say that this is the beginning of a rebellion within the Jhereg.

Maybe this means that taking out the top guys would leave people 
reasonable enough to reach an accord with.

>
>>> Besides, I'm pretty sure the current Council members are taking this
>>> pretty personally. Vlad has pissed off pretty much every one of them
>>> individually at this point.
>>
>> This just argues for Vlad taking them out. You think Mario is happy about
>> the Jhereg putting Aliera in jail?
>
> Problem is, Vlad's not really in a position to replace them with his own 
> hand-picked replacements if he kills the particular current leaders on 
> the Council. Even if he could get all five (four?) of them at something 
> close to the same time, they likely each have lieutennants with each of 
> their organizations that would just take their places if this happened.

Ok, he has to take out four or five guys, then four or five guys, then ask 
those who pick up the pieces after a decade of distraction if they want to 
call things off or be next.  Between Vlad, Mario, and Kragar, along with 
anyone else Vlad can recruit, this sounds like a difficult and dangerous 
but doable task, and overall a big reduction in stress.


> would take a *lot* of gold to engineer a pay-off on that scale. And even 
> if you could pay enough to get all those lieutennants to turn on their 
> bosses at the same time, how could you ever trust them to keep their 
> word afterward?

Not a reliable option as you say, but Vlad should be pleased with any 
improvement.  Plus of course any former lieutenant would have to know 
that using house resources for anything would likely lead to being 
entirely former.

Presumably Vlad's friends would think it well worthwhile to finance 
anything likely to help a great deal.


>>>> If Vlad dies a natural death, they're really screwed.
>>>
>>> On that much we can agree.
>>
>> That has to be part of their calculation then. It's not like they're
>> making any progress - just the opposite.
>
> Which explains why they're willing to set up Aliera and risk pissing off 
> the House of Dragon in the process just for the chance to nail him. 
> They're getting more desparate.




>> Why would anyone put that much effort into becoming powerful in order
>> to spend the rest of their lives on the run? It would be much easier
>> and lucrative to wipe out the council and install one's friends. Any
>> sufficient motive is going to lead to the bad actions in question
>> regardless of response.
>
> See above.

Still don't see the answer to "Why be the next Mellar?".


>>> The Jhereg have spent 250,000 years building a reputation as the House
>>> you don't dare cross. They can't afford to just let Vlad go. Or at
>>> least, the leaders of the House believe this is the case, which amounts
>>> to the same thing.
>>
>> They're risking doing that right now and burning resources - by coming to
>> an understanding they can remove the risk and be better prepared in case
>> anyone is dumb enough to try to follow Vlad.
>>
>> And they didn't actually win the last war, did they? They just showed
>> they'd fight incredibly hard, which is all that's needed to be a
>> deterrent.
>
> I'm not really going to disagree that this might in all actuality be 
> sufficient, but I'm not the one you'd need to convince. Tell that to the 
> Jhereg Council.

Why do I have to explain their manifest interest to them?


>>> The alternative is that they'd have to spend far more money and
>>> resources instilling a new sense of terror in order to maintain their
>>> control than they are spending chasing after Vlad.
>>
>> I don't see anyone in the Jhereg amassing the skills and strengths to
>> put up 1/17th of the struggle Vlad has.
>
> Not individually. But if "every two-bit operator" starts trying, they 
> won't have the resources to stop them all.

They take out 17 two-bit operators - can't be that expensive, since 
they're two-bit - then they take out 17^2 if necessary.  The lesson is 
going to sink in.  If the house really believes these rules are important 
it won't be hard to muster the workers.


>> They're also risking a scenario in which Vlad takes out the council and
>> puts Mario and Kragar in their place. That doesn't hurt the Empire
>> really, and probably takes care of Vlad's problem during his lifespan.
>> If Vlad comes to think that's necessary for VN to have a good life, he
>> might just go for it. The council ought to cut its losses before they
>> lose everything.
>
> Well, we don't know much about Mario's actual position within the 
> Organization (if any). Does he control territory? And is Kragar's 
> territory and organization large enough to hold a spot on the Council, 
> even if one were handed to him on a silver platter?

I'm willing to bet "no" and "no for traditional power, yes for his info 
network".

>
> In order to install one's friends at the top of the council, one must 
> cultivate powerful friends within the Organization. Again, difficult 
> when most of them want you dead.

But those who get along just get dead.  This happens often enough and 
the house will evolve.

I guess an argument I would buy against this idea is that Vlad and friends 
would be averse to the amount of bloodshed that would be required.  On the 
other hand he was ready to take out a roomful of LHs not so long ago if 
forced to.

And maybe I underestimate the strength of the council members.