[Dragaera] not really a spoiler, i don't think...

[Steve Rapaport]

There are equally simple mundane explanations for the outgoing houses being
more powerful.

1.  Institutional inertia.  The "Phoenix Guards" will remain mostly Phoenix
in a Dragon reign (present case excepted).  Whatever advantages the Phoenix
courtiers and civil servants and institutions secured for themselves in the
Phoenix reign will not vanish overnight.

2.  Political inertia.  Part of a politician's job is to set up leverage for
himself for future deals, and not all of that leverage will depend on the
current state of the cycle or who is Emperor at the moment.

3. Public thinking.  Even if the public is fickle, and willing to forget all
about Phoenixes and start respecting Dragons, the automatic respect they
taught their kids for Phoenixes won't go away overnight either.

\Steve the Younger

2010/1/19 Eugene Zaretskiy <eugene.zar at gmail.com>

>
>
> I think the further along the series gets, the more Vlad (and us)
> learn that those things that may have seemed supernatural before, are
> in fact mundane. I don't think there's any evidence to suggest random
> kittens for Jhregeg assassins. On the other hand, the political
> machinations of the Cycle have been pointed out many times.
>
> So, the houses on the "incoming" side of the top of the Cycle being
> powerful makes sense, from a mundane perspective. Dragon is the most
> powerful house, after Phoenix, because they are next in line and
> everyone wants to please them. Less so for the next house and so on.
> But using this "mundane Cycle" explanation does not satisfactorily
> explain the houses on the "outgoing" side being powerful, which lends
> some credit to the "supernatural" theory.
>



-- 
\Steve