[Dragaera] not really a spoiler, i don't think...

[Eugene Zaretskiy]

On Mon, Jan 18, 2010 at 4:53 AM, andy <bonham15 at cox.net> wrote:
> here is a bit of the list's old fashioned pararectal reasoning again I
> wanted to toss up at all the big brains out there, specially since I don't
> think I've contributed anything in a few years other than some good, solid
> fingerpointing at my computer screen....
>
> to what extent is the cycle cushioning and protecting Vlad right now?  With
> the jhereg at the bottom, would this not only affect the perceived power of
> the house (and the real, I suppose),  but also their actual effectiveness?
> such as would profit margins on their games go down as their place in the
> cycle receded? more prone to making decisions as a house and potentially on
> an individual basis, that just simply aren't as effective?  To what degree
> would the Cycle itself affect the ability of 'normal' members of house
> jhereg to make the correct decisions on when and where to place a shereba
> game?  More botched assassinations due to little twists of fate like
> tripping over the cute little kitten as you step up to finalize someone?

You raise what I think is an interesting question: Is the balancing
effect of the cycle a mundane reflection of the political
repercussions of taking turns at playing Emperor? Or is it something
supernatural, a force that places these kittens in the assassin's path
when his house is low in the cycle?

I think the further along the series gets, the more Vlad (and us)
learn that those things that may have seemed supernatural before, are
in fact mundane. I don't think there's any evidence to suggest random
kittens for Jhregeg assassins. On the other hand, the political
machinations of the Cycle have been pointed out many times.

So, the houses on the "incoming" side of the top of the Cycle being
powerful makes sense, from a mundane perspective. Dragon is the most
powerful house, after Phoenix, because they are next in line and
everyone wants to please them. Less so for the next house and so on.
But using this "mundane Cycle" explanation does not satisfactorily
explain the houses on the "outgoing" side being powerful, which lends
some credit to the "supernatural" theory.

>
> andy
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-- 
Eugene Z
http://blog.eugenez.net