[Dragaera] not really a spoiler, i don't think...

[Eugene Zaretskiy]

On Tue, Jan 19, 2010 at 11:19 AM, Steve Rapaport
<steve.rapaport at gmail.com> wrote:
> There are equally simple mundane explanations for the outgoing houses being
> more powerful.
>
> 1.  Institutional inertia.  The "Phoenix Guards" will remain mostly Phoenix
> in a Dragon reign (present case excepted).  Whatever advantages the Phoenix
> courtiers and civil servants and institutions secured for themselves in the
> Phoenix reign will not vanish overnight.
>
> 2.  Political inertia.  Part of a politician's job is to set up leverage for
> himself for future deals, and not all of that leverage will depend on the
> current state of the cycle or who is Emperor at the moment.
>
> 3. Public thinking.  Even if the public is fickle, and willing to forget all
> about Phoenixes and start respecting Dragons, the automatic respect they
> taught their kids for Phoenixes won't go away overnight either.

I thought about these elements, but all three of fall into the
"unsatisfactory" bucket in my opinion, unless these two points can be
addressed:

1. While the power of incoming houses has been visibly demonstrated in
the books, to my knowledge, none of the three points you bring up
about outgoing houses have been.

2. Less importantly, and text aside (since, as per #1, we don't have
any evidence of this), none of those three, or even all three
combined, seem to me to be as practically efficient as being heir to
the Empire. #1 and #2 seem to be perks of the job for those few who
happen to be at the top of the house hierarchy while the house is in
power and have the foresight and inclination to take advantage of
these things. By contrast, the power of an incoming house is implicit
and does not need to be acted upon, and affects all the individuals of
a house because one can never be certain what position the Dragonlord
one is offending will hold when the Cycle turns. #3 doesn't have these
issues but I don't believe it's a factor that would have any serious
implications. The slight change in attitude does not explain the power
referred to when discussing top-tier houses.

>
> \Steve the Younger
>
> 2010/1/19 Eugene Zaretskiy <eugene.zar at gmail.com>
>>
>>
>> I think the further along the series gets, the more Vlad (and us)
>> learn that those things that may have seemed supernatural before, are
>> in fact mundane. I don't think there's any evidence to suggest random
>> kittens for Jhregeg assassins. On the other hand, the political
>> machinations of the Cycle have been pointed out many times.
>>
>> So, the houses on the "incoming" side of the top of the Cycle being
>> powerful makes sense, from a mundane perspective. Dragon is the most
>> powerful house, after Phoenix, because they are next in line and
>> everyone wants to please them. Less so for the next house and so on.
>> But using this "mundane Cycle" explanation does not satisfactorily
>> explain the houses on the "outgoing" side being powerful, which lends
>> some credit to the "supernatural" theory.
>
>
>
> --
> \Steve
>



-- 
Eugene Z
http://blog.eugenez.net