[Dragaera] Vlad's Birth

[Alexx Kay]

Remember, months back, when we were arguing about how old Vlad was?  And I
said that when I did my revised Timeline, I'd try and work out why I
thought what I did about that?  Well, I've spent a large number of hours
over the past few weeks collating information, and have come to some very
different conclusions than those that are in the current release of the
Timeline.

Vlad almost certainly *is* older than I (used to) claim, by some 2-4
years.  Here's the section I just finished writing:

Vlad's Birth

We don't know when in the year Vlad was born. There's only a single
reference to his birthday (Tt 31), and that contains no seasonal
information.

Vlad acquires the egg that will hatch Loiosh at age sixteen (Jr 3). We
don't know exactly how far into his sixteenth year he was, but we can make
some inferences. In "the following week" (Jr 9), there is a near-accident
which prompts Vlad to sell the restaurant. "About two months after I had
sold the restaurant" (Jr 10), Loiosh hatches, and the next day Vlad ends
up joining the Organization. "I was seventeen years old the first time I
was paid to kill a man" (Tt 97), and at that time "Loiosh explained to me
that he was now more than a year old. I allowed as to how this was true"
(Tt 115). Loiosh is only *just* over a year old, since a few weeks
earlier, Vlad says "I had been in the Organization nearly a year" (Tt
103). From all this, we can put his seventeenth birthday at between 2 and
15 months earlier.

Vlad's first assassination is part of the war between Welok and Rolaan.
That war "lasted for several months" (Tt 137). "several" is vague, but I'm
going to guess between 5 and 7 (Y 44 suggests that this is a bit on the
long side, but not atypical). The war had been going for at least a month
when Vlad was hired for his first 'work', so say between 3 and 6 months
passed between that job and Rolaan's death. "About a year and a half after
Rolaan [died]" (Y 14), Welok dies in turn; let's figure that at between 24
and 27 months. Tagichatn takes over (Y 14). After 2 months (Y 14), Vlad
kills him and sets up in business for himself. This is only "a few months"
before Taltos begins (Tt 2-3), say between 2 and 4. Assuming none of this
is grossly wrong, it adds up to a total of between 31 and 39 months. Thus,
Vlad's age at the beginning of Taltos could be anywhere between 18 years,
16 months, and 20 years, 3 months. Splitting the difference gives us an
age of 19 years, 10 1/2 months.

Figuring backwards from Jhereg, which multiple references place in 243 PI,
Taltos begins in 239 PI. (See notes for each individual book for more
details on that derivation.) It's "summer" (Tt 113), which we know begins
a few days into the month of the Hawk (5), and presumably continues until
halfway through the month of Vallista (9). Let's say, for the sake of
argument, that Taltos begins in the month of Issola (7). That would put
Vlad's birthday somewhere in the month of the Orca (14), the winter of
late 219 PI.

I fully realize that the previous two paragraphs are full of wild
assumptions, and have error bars of about a year either way, in total. But
until such time as I get better data, I'm going to use these figures. That
very use may help highlight further data...

Alexx

"Parents who tell their kids that all their atoms get replaced every seven
 years should instead say -over- every seven years, so as to avoid undue
 anxiety over Total Atom Replacement Day."   -- James Nicoll