[Dragaera] Is Kelly foolish?

[Jerry Friedman]

Louis Eastman wrote:

> So, Kelly's plan is to unify Easterners and Teckla against pretty much
> everyone else. He definitely has the advantage of numbers...but he speaks of
> forcing the Imperium to do things, while also speaking encouraging armed
> resistance like the shutdown of South Adrilinkha. What I don't understand is
> how he expects to win.

> For one thing, he assumes the vast majority of the populace will willing
> join him, which seems...optimistic. And ultimately it doesn't seem like he
> has an answer to the fact that the Empire, which has only one ranged weapon
> commonly available for the regular footsoldier, has a monopoly on sorcery,

I don't think it does.  Easterners and Teckla can do some sorcery (which Paresh 
makes a point of, as I recall).

> in addition to the fact that they face Pre-Empire sorcery AND the Orb. So
> while Kelly has the masses, the Empire has the equivalents of artillery/gun
> emplacements which negate that.

Is it clear that sorcery and the Orb (to whatever extent it isn't the same as 
sorcery) and even pre-Empire sorcery can be the equivalents of artillery and gun 
emplacements?

If Paarfi's description of Morrolan's expedition against Tri'nagore is anything 
like correct, Morrolan probably can't be overwhelmed by numbers as long as he 
can stay awake.  Quite possibly neither can Aliera or Sethra.  But maybe that's 
not true of anyone else.  And the three of them can't guard the whole Imperial 
Palace.

> This makes me wonder exactly what his long term plans are. Does he expect
> the some of the nobility will join him?

Maybe.  It's happened in reality, but I suspect that's partly because of moral 
ideas (human rights, the golden rule) that seem to be unknown or at least not 
explicitly in people's minds in the Empire.


> Or that he can outfight sorcery with witchcraft?

Maybe at least neutralize it enough to get the advantage of numbers to tell.


> That the Teckla/Easterners won't break after a few massive defeats?

I believe revolutions have happened after massive defeats.

Vlad heard that the rebels were winning until the sailors on the Whitecrest 
withdrew their support.  (I wonder why, beside plot necessities.)  I'd assume 
they were Orca, so maybe "common" Orca are likely to join a revolution.  And 
apparently in Steven's world, such a rebellion can come close enough to success 
that hope wasn't foolish, and the next one would have a chance of succeeding.

You mentioned the long term.  Kelly is probably partly thinking about the real 
long term.  In this fictional world, Marxism is the truth.  History inevitably 
tends toward a revolution that will bring about a socialism far better than 
anything the world has ever seen.

However, as Ken Koester said, Kelly's world isn't ready for it.  Verra says that 
and Steven confirmed it here some years ago. Another part of Marxian historical 
inevitability is that socialism arises from industrial capitalism.  The Empire 
is just feeling its way toward that. So if Kelly's imagining a dictatorship of 
the proletariat in his or even Morrolan's lifetime, he doesn't have good reason 
for it.

On the other hand, what should someone do in a country that's not ready for a 
communist revolution?  Probably the Marxist answer is: do everything you can to 
bring it about anyway.  Ultimately you're on the side of history, your actions 
will be moral, and I'll bet Marxists believe they'll somehow work out for 
the best.  E.g., provoking brutal retaliation from the rulers radicalizes people 
against them, including some of the bourgeoisie and the aristocracy, and brings 
the revolution that much closer.  Or you can work to make things better for the 
oppressed in the short term.  Scott Schultz says this is most of what Kelly is 
doing, but I suspect he's satisfied with retaliation too.

Scott also says that Marxism isn't appropriate in a world with the Lords of 
Judgement and the Cycle, and I might add that Marxists haven't thought much 
about the possibility that a proletariat might be innately inferior in important 
ways, such as the Easterners' and Tecklas' lower capacity for sorcery that you 
point out.  But I suspect that only makes things harder, not impossible.  Though 
Marxist theorists may have never imagined anything like Dragaera, I speculate 
that Steven thinks their theories work even there.  If the Cycle stands in the 
way, it will be destroyed.  (There was a time when it didn't exist, so 
presumably there could be a time when it doesn't.)  If the Lords of Judgement 
stand in the way, they'll lose their power.

I even speculate that Vlad will have an important role in moving the Empire in 
that direction.

Jerry Friedman, not a Marxist