[Dragaera] Timeline 2.0 is done

[Joshua Kronengold]

On 08/01/2011 02:44 PM, Scott Schultz wrote:
> One quibble, which may very well be my own take on things and not an "error"
> - It was my impression that a "Reborn Phoenix" is NOT something that occurs
> every cycle. Rather, it was the end-result of the Great Cycle.

Have to agree that Decadent/Reborn Phoenixes don't happen every cycle. 
Don't agree that there's evidence that it's specifically a Great Cycle 
thing, although having a lacuna in the cycle might very well be a result 
of a Great Cycle turning.

That said, I don't think it's at all clear in the narrative that the 
cycle turns with every change of ruler.  Certainly, we've got a 
counter-example in the rules stated -- if the ruler dies too early in 
the cycle (less than 289 years), the cycle cannot turn and another ruler 
of that House will be chosen.  And the maximum length of a leg of the 
cycle is 4,913 years, whereas a Dragaeran lifespan is 3000 years.  So 
even if a reign is not cut short, a dynasty might last longer than a 
single Dragaeran lifespan.

So with that in mind, it seems like the Decay/Rebirth cycle, while 
fairly common in the Phoenix pattern (because, you know, that's what 
Phoenixes are -like-) is really, when split between Phoenix rulers, a 
sidegrowth of the usual "sometimes you have more than one ruler in a 
dynasty" pattern.  Phoenixes will -tend- to have a decay/rebirth cycle, 
because, you know, phoenixes; it might be the same ruler, it might be 
two separate rulers.  They might be cut off at "decay"; the pattern is 
clearly not exactly the same every time.

That said, I would argue that the usual pattern (thinking logically 
rather than looking at direct textev) is

Phoenix, beginning of dynasty: sinks into decay and decadence.
Phoenix, end of dynasty: resurgence, rebuilding of empire, strength 
leading to potential conquest, resulting in change (either via 
revolution or peaceful changover after retirement or death of previous 
ruler) to
Dragon dynasty, aggressive expansion, imperial tyranny, eventually 
restrained by rule of law (Runnymede, on a repeating cycle), resulting 
in the rise of
Lyorn beaurocracy


Could probably continue the cycle all the way round, but it involves a 
lot of (interesting) speculation.